Market Eyes MSCI Index Rebalancing and Predicts IHSG Rise 2025

Associate Director of Research and Investment at Pilarmas Investindo Securities, Maximilianus Nico Demus (Nico), projects that the Indonesia Stock Exchange Composite Index (IHSG) will strengthen in Thursday’s trading, driven primarily by domestic factors. Market participants are watching the results of the MSCI index rebalancing released early Thursday (6/11) Indonesia time.
“Based on technical analysis, we see limited upside potential for IHSG, with support and resistance in the 8,160-8,320 range,” Nico stated in a release from Jakarta on Thursday.
On the domestic front, he indicated that the MSCI index rebalancing data may support IHSG’s uplift and boost trading activity. The rebalancing showed several new issuers entering the MSCI list and others being replaced or removed. The rebalancing results will apply at the close of 24 November 2025 and take effect on 25 November 2025.
From a macro-economic perspective, Nico considers Indonesia’s economy remains on a positive track, but policy support is needed to bolster domestic consumption, raise productive investment, and expand higher-value exports to sustain growth momentum into end-2025. According to the Central Bureau of Statistics (BPS), Indonesia’s economy grew by 5.04% yoy in Q3 2025 and by 1.43% qoq.
Globally, the U.S. Supreme Court is hearing oral arguments in a lawsuit regarding the use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (1977) by President Donald Trump to impose tariffs. In yesterday’s hearing, the Court expressed skepticism over Trump’s use of executive power on economic policy, noting that Congress—not the president—has the authority to levy taxes and tariffs. The outcome could have major economic implications, including whether the Trump administration must pay back USD 90 billion in tariff revenues.
On Wednesday (05/11), European stock markets ended firm: the Euro Stoxx 50 rose 0.20%, the UK’s FTSE 100 added 0.64%, Germany’s DAX gained 0.42%, and France’s CAC 40 edged up 0.08%. In the U.S., the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.48% to 47,311.00, the S&P 500 rose 0.37% to 6,796.31, and the Nasdaq Composite climbed 0.73% to 25,620.03.